And if it goes up, what?

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Your rival just happened. You look at your cards and you think you can take one more bet, since the river does not seem to have changed at all. Bets half a pot and, after thinking for a few seconds, the opponent goes allin and has more chips than you.

Suddenly you’re playing the tournament. With how good it would have been if you had passed. You would have seen the result of the hand without suffering, and now you are in a difficult situation. You do not trust your hand very much, but the opponent may be bluffing. The problem is that if you make a mistake, you are eliminated from the tournament.

But the real problem is that before making your bet you have not asked yourself the question that will make your future decisions easier.

And if it goes up, what?

This is the key question you have to ask each time you are making a bet. This movement gives your rivals the opportunity to make a raise. And, the nice situation you were in, with your chips in the middle putting pressure on the opponent, turns and everything turns black. You start to regret having bet. With how calm you would be if you had passed.

This uncomfortable feeling is what will help us not to repeat this error. If you are clear that any opponent can raise your bet and, above all, you know what you are going to do in case it happens; your problems disappear, that feeling does not exist. You have gotten your opponents to lose the power to make you have a hard time.

Every time you make a bet, keep in mind the options that you would have in case the opponent climbed. Think and analyze the situation in which you will find if they respond with a raise.

If you upload me? Great, I have the nuts.

In this case you have never had doubts. You have the best possible hand, or a very strong hand, your only goal is for the opponent to put his chips inside the pot. When you see your bet raise, avoid jumping for joy, and get ready to re-raise.

We all have strange thoughts in our heads, it is the “nice game syndrome”, instead of making the most obvious thing, which is usually what will benefit us the most, we look for creative solutions.

If you think about limiting yourself to paying to make the rival think that your hand is mediocre, you can not forget the main problem that may arise. If you pay when you do not have a position, when the next card comes out, it is normal for you to pass, thus risking the opponent also passing and losing a betting round. This problem does not exist if you have a position, since when the opponent passes, you bet and do not lose an opportunity to enlarge the pot.

Another problem that can appear when you do slowplay is the appearance of a “scary card”. An ace, a card that completes a ladder or a color can make the action of the hand finish, causing you to take a small one instead of taking a giant pot.

I have seen many players take a small boat when they had to take a very large one, even it has happened to me on some occasion when I played slowplay without the proper circumstances.

If I have I do not have anything?

Here, as in the previous case, there are no complications. You throw yourself and wait for the next hand. You have thrown a bluff to try to take the pot but you have caught your opponent with a decent hand, so you give your hand and prepare for the next hand that you will share.

You do not need to flash. You do not have to think if the opponent may be bluffing. You do not need to do anything other than throw away the cards or hit the retreat button.

It is not bad to throw yourself. In order to have a balanced strategy, you have to bluff with some hands, and when you get caught, you throw yourself with peace of mind. If you never fold when they raise you, it means you never bet with a bad hand, so you’re never going to take a big pot when you have a powerful hand because the rivals will not give you action when you see that you only bet with good hands.

This is why you have to bet with bad hands, if you get up you throw and if they pay you, you pose the situation with the next card or if it is on the river, you present your bluff and the opponent takes the chips.

These two cases, both having the best hand and not having anything, are the ones that are not going to present difficulties because they do tend to be prepared. You know if you’re going to shoot before a raise or you’re going to keep attacking.

What if I have a middle hand or a project?

Have you bet with a project trying to take the pot, but the opponent has answered you with a raise that puts you in a complicated situation?

Do you have a middle hand and have you bet waiting for you to pay with a worse hand and, instead, have you received a raise?

These are the cases in which you get into trouble if you have not prepared what you are going to do.

When you see that the opponent answers you with a raise that you did not have planned, the tears appear. And these tears are what make it not easy to make the best decision. The feeling that leaves you the unpleasant surprise of seeing something that you did not expect and that you do not like is not going to put you in the best position to analyze the hand.

The natural response to these situations is to avoid them. So as not to put yourself in an unpleasant situation, you stop betting with the middle hands or with the projects, or, worse, you make exorbitant bets, losing all the value that the hand can have.

How many times have you seen someone go all-in with a project or an average hand?

I give you an example that you have seen many times. Start a sit & go or a tournament and a player goes directly all-in when it is your turn. It has about 100 blinds and everything is played. You’re a little surprised by the bet. But after any of the other players at the table pay, you see that he presents A ♦ J ♦ . The fear of not knowing what to do if they raise him led him to make the decision to avoid that raise by going directly all-in. The amount of chips he loses when making that decision for not playing the hand rationally, compensates him as long as he does not go through the bad experience of having a rival raise him and go blank.

This automatic response is the cause of many players wasting situations in which they can win many chips. As they will go all-in to avoid the rise of the opponent, at other times they prefer to pass and avoid facing the opponent. They just wait for the opponent to pass and, probably, to pay if the opponent bets.

This is a game in which you have to risk to win chips. If you avoid all risk situations, you will never be a winner.

But this does not mean that you bet like crazy in all situations. You have to have a cool head, analyze the situation and when you know what you’re going to do when the opponent comes up, decide whether you should bet or not. There will be times in which you pass, others that you throw away and others that raise the bet of your opponent, but always knowing what to do if it re-rises.

These basic strategies that we present at are essential to create the base that your game needs to improve. Keep going through this poker blog if you want to keep improving your poker.

Making decisions in the sport based on data analysis

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Sports used to be simple. In baseball, the players went out to the field and hit the ball while in soccer the strategy was X and O on a blackboard. Even poker, a game reduced to 52 cards, was just a person and his cards. But things have changed.

The rise of computers has brought a new era to sports and the world of information and data analysis has changed the way it is played.

Here are three examples of these changes:

Billy Bean and the rise of Sabermetrics

If you have seen the movie Moneyball, starring Brad Pitt, then you will have met Billy Beane. According to IMDB, this is the synopsis:

“The success of Oakland A’s CEO Billy Beane in forming a baseball team on a limited budget using computer analysis to sign his players.”

It does not seem very exciting. How do you make a movie interesting about data analysis? But it was a critical and public success.

Beane is an ex-player and manager who succeeded as a player but managing the team has changed the sport using statistical analysis. He used what is known as Sabermetrics, the empirical analysis of the game by measuring statistics during the game.

This includes the analysis of batting, throws and field plays, which reuses statistics such as Value Over the Average Player (VORP), Wins Above Replacement (WAR), and Average of Batting on the Balls in Game (Batting Average On Balls In Play, BABIP).

There is a lot of advanced math and calculus, so if it seems complicated, see the movie we’ve told you or read the book it’s based on, to see how baseball has changed.

As Beane said: “Adapt or die.”

Poker is not just an individual game

In 2008, the World Series of Poker (WSOP) began with the concept of “November Nine”. The game was stopped when the WSOP Main Event reached the final table of nine players, giving the players a hiatus of almost four months. This was done to increase the excitement among fans and the media, but it opened the door for players to change their game.

With a first prize of more than eight million dollars, the players needed to take advantage of any advantage they had. They often hired a coach to improve their game, iron out mistakes and study rivals. With hundreds of poker books, online training sites and tools like the odds calculator at your disposal, there was no time to relax.

It also meant forming a team that will help at the final table. Despite being an individual game, poker changed and players asked for help from their friends. As the November Nine was broadcast live with a delay of fifteen to thirty minutes, the players could ask their friends to watch the broadcast and in the breaks to tell them what was happening at the table and the cards of the rivals.

With so much information in their hands, the VPIP% (percentage of hands in which the player voluntarily puts chips into the pot), PFR% (percentage of times the player raises before the flop) and WTSD% (percentage of times that a player arrives at the showdown after seeing the flop) are just three of the many statistics that have appeared in poker. They only make sense for those players who use the power of data to make their decisions.

NFL teams start hiring analysts

In early 2016, the Cleveland Browns hired expert analyst Paul DePodesta, If you’ve seen Moneyball, you’ll be interested to know that Peter Brand, the character played by Jonah Hill, is based on DePodesta.

He was hired, according to Browns owner Jimmy Haslam, to have a fundamental vision in the board. This is because the team, which had been among the worst in the NFl for years, was trying to apply data analysis.

“My idea is to contribute my experience and perspective to collaborate with the team, with the intention of helping us to make more informed and adequate decisions”, said DePodesta.

It was a fairly unorthodox movement for a football team, but it is clear that they hope that the data analysis can help change the game as much as it did with baseball, especially helping in the development of players and the science of sports.

Unfortunately for the Browns, the results were not immediate and they finished last with 1 win and 15 losses in 2016, this gives them the opportunity to choose the first in the 2017 draft. We will have to wait to see their DePodesta and his team become worth, but what is certain is that they will use data analysis to make their decisions.

Experience in a satellite tournament

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Hello, my username is albertomais and I am going to tell you my experience about the classification in the main tournament of the SuperSeries 2014

As almost every month I decided to enter a sum of money to play poker, in this case were 40 euros, but this month had a special purpose while ambitious and is that they were going to celebrate as you know the superseries in 888poker … The only objective with which I enter this time was to qualify for the main event of the superseries at all costs and that’s how it was finally. After having played a few low steps successfully I qualified for the step 6 last step to get the classification, this first attempt turned out to be a failure but good to try it alone had cost me 1 or 3 euros I do not remember well. While I was playing steps also alternated with cheap sit and go and some regular tournament in which I was quite successful, luck was with me hand in hand and managed to get together with 195 euros the same night of my failure in step 6 what It made me forget this failure. It was already the next day and I started to play a step 5 that cost 12 euros. I was third there was no luck, but I was about to close a sit and go step 6 of 55 euros, the night before I went well and decided to pay the entrance and go for all and here I went where I finally got the ticket to the main event I will tell you the 3 main hands with which I won the tournament. During the tournament there was a player raised (inexplicable thing in a tournament with so much at stake) which made everything much easier for everyone.

The first one I managed to double up with was a KQ diamond suite against an aq off. the player resubió to 165 chips rise considerable I wanted to see my cards even and all retired the flop could not be better fell not one if not two kings had trio of kings on the flop the opponent bluffing me putting almost 400 chips that I will gladly match came the turn and I put the box and pay my hand to take what made me leader and from there were a little easier things

The next was when we already had 3 players, was leader of the tournament until a player who was almost out of it got triple and almost equal to my ATM, we had 3000 and peak each and the other about 2500, which is removed from this hand : I receive ak suites in picas the tapeworm jj spoke before me and I raised to almost 800 in preeflop with blind 100/200 to what I answered with the box, the equal was a delicate moment one of the two went to the street palming 55 euros he was winning until the river spit the ace and I took the boat

We only had two and one charged the other one won the ticket, I was a leader as in the previous hand I decided to play it with an aj off with box in pre-flop the opponent paid me what were left with kq off he gave him doubles and my ladder on the river and finally win for my joy that longed for ticket. a greeting